THE DATA IS THE NEWS

S3 Research

  • S3 Research

    2020 Short-Side Winners/ Losers

    by Ihor Dusaniwsky

    Overall short exposure in the domestic market grew by $108 billion in 2020 to $1.05 trillion in equity\ADR short interest. This rise in short interest masked the fact that short sellers were actively covering their positions into the 2020 rally. The $282 billion of mark-to-market increase in the value of shares shorted was partially offset by $175 billion in buy-to-covers. Short-side mark-to-market losses caused short squeezes in many shorted domestic equities/ADRs.

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  • InternationalS3 Research

    2020 4th Quarter Global Short Selling Recap

    by Ihor Dusaniwsky

    Looking at Short Interest as a % of Float, we do see a significant decrease in shares shorted, but just counting the total amount of physical shares shorted does not give a complete picture of short selling and short exposure. We need to look at Short Interest, or dollars at risk, to truly see what the shorts are doing.

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  • S3 Research

    Cannabis Sector Recap

    by Ihor Dusaniwsky

    Total short interest in the over 200 U.S. and Canadian cannabis stocks in our portfolio is $2.85 billion. Short selling is highly concentrated in a handful of names with short interest of the top twenty most shorted stocks in the sector at $2.81 billion, 99% of the total. Short interest in our portfolio has increased by $1.15 billion since the Russell 3000 market low on March 23rd. While short interest in our portfolio has increased from year-to-date low levels, it has been relatively stable over the last 30 days, down only -$27 billion. Canopy Growth Corp (CGC US, WEED CN) continues to be the largest short in the sector by a wide margin.

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  • S3 Research

    Potential Short Squeezes

    by Ihor Dusaniwsky

    Equity short squeezes can come from an accumulation of mark-to-market losses and\or high stock borrow costs which eat up an unacceptable amount of expected Alpha. Looking primarily at the mark-to-market losses I have combed over the nearly 14 thousand domestic stocks with short interest to see which stocks are short squeeze candidates. In my analysis I am looking at stocks with over $100 million of total short interest to include only stocks where the short covering from a squeeze can materially affect stock prices. Below are the top ten stocks by market cap with the largest weekly mark-to-market % losses, mark-to-market monthly % losses over -20% and stock loan borrow rates over 7% fee.

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  • S3 Research

    Get Ready for a QuantumScape Short Squeeze

    by Ihor Dusaniwsky

    Lithium metal battery producer QuantumScape Corp (QS) is up over +26% in mid-morning trading after it announced positive technical results for its solid-state batteries. The need of a fast-charging, safe and powerful battery is one of the most important components for the Electric Vehicle industry. QS short interest is $110 million; 1.90 million shares, 9.55% short interest % of float; 8.72% S3 short interest % float (which includes “synthetic longs” created by short sales); 109.08% stock borrow fee which is trending over the 175% fee level in recent trading.

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  • S3 Research

    November Energy Sector Short-Side Recap

    by Ihor Dusaniwsky

    The Energy sector reversed its year-long price weakness and has rallied significantly in November with the Energy Select Sector Spider (XLE) up +28% for the month. Rumors that sector wide short covering was one of the main drivers for this price upswing are not backed up by short side trading activity. The net change in shares shorted for the over 700 stocks in the sector was $394 million of net short covering and therefore the Energy sector shorts were a negligible factor in the rally. The rally in the Energy sector was primarily driven by long side buying, as traders rotated into an under-performing and under-owned sector of the market.

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  • S3 Research

    NKLA Shorts up $414 million on GM News

    by Ihor Dusaniwsky

    Short sellers in hydrogen fueled truck designer\manufacturer Nikola Corp (NKLA) are up +$414 million in mark-to-market profits this morning as the stock is trading down -26% in morning trading.  NKLA and General Motors (GM) announced the signing of a non-binding memorandum of understanding that GM will supply NKLA with its Hydrotec Fuel cell system for production of NKLA’s semi-truck. The MOU did not include a previously announced subscription agreement to sell 47.7 million shares of NKLA stock to GM nor any reference to NKLA’s Badger truck.

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  • S3 Research

    Retail Sector Short Side Recap

    by Ihor Dusaniwsky

    Retail sector short interest declined by a third in the first quarter of 2020 as the stock market plunged in response to the Covid pandemic, but has more than doubled since then, topping $90 billion in November.

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  • AirlinesEquitiesS3 ResearchSectors

    Airline Shorts Trimming Positions

    by Ihor Dusaniwsky

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    This has been a volatile year investing in the Airline sector, but short sellers have been predominately profitable trading stocks in this sector. With the recent announcements of successful Covid-19 vaccines, the return of the airline traveler is expected sooner rather than later, and we are seeing overall short interest in the sector declining. Short interest in the sector peaked in early June and has dropped by -24% since then.

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  • EquitiesS3 ResearchTesla

    S3 Analytics: TSLA Shorts Down -$4 Billion This Week

    by Ihor Dusaniwsky

    This week the Dow Jones Index Committee announced that Tesla Inc (TSLA) will be added to the S&P 500 prior to the open on December 21, 2010. Tesla’s stock price has rallied since the announcement, gaining +21% as of mid-morning trading. As a result of this surge in its stock price TSLA equity short sellers are down -$4 billion in mark-to-market net-of-financing losses in under four days. TSLA shorts are now down -$30.34 in year-to-date mark-to-market net-of-financing losses and down -$5.03 billion for the month of November.

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